Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Preview: Who Has the Edge on September 30?

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the New York Islanders on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto will be playing its second game in two nights after opening the NHL season against Montréal on Tuesday. For New York, it is the first game of the season.

The headline matchup is between Gavin McKenna and Matthew Schaefer, the first overall picks in the 2026 and 2025 NHL drafts. But the result may depend just as much on Toronto’s experienced scorers and whether the Islanders can generate enough offence in front of goaltender Ilya Sorokin.

Players to watch for Toronto

Gavin McKenna

McKenna is the player many Canadian fans will tune in to see. The 18-year-old forward is expected to begin his NHL career alongside John Tavares and William Nylander. That gives him skilled teammates who can finish the chances he creates while taking some of the scoring pressure off him in his first week.

Watch what McKenna does when Toronto enters the offensive zone. If he can find space and move the puck quickly, the Leafs could generate chances beyond their top line. It is still early in his career, so a quiet game would say little about his long-term potential.

Auston Matthews

Matthews remains Toronto’s most established goal threat. If the Islanders spend too much time defending McKenna’s line, Matthews could find more room to shoot. Toronto’s captain is also the player most capable of changing a close game with one scoring chance.

William Nylander

Nylander’s playmaking and scoring make him another key part of Toronto’s attack. His connection with McKenna and Tavares will be worth following, particularly if the Leafs need a goal late in the game.

Players to watch for the Islanders

Matthew Schaefer

Schaefer gives New York a young defender who can influence the game at both ends of the ice. He won the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie last season and now faces the player selected first overall a year after him. His ability to move the puck out of New York’s zone could be especially valuable against Toronto’s forwards.

Schaefer was held out of the Islanders’ final preseason game with an upper-body issue. His status and workload are worth checking when the team confirms its lineup.

Ilya Sorokin

If Sorokin starts, he could be the biggest obstacle for Toronto. The Islanders relied heavily on him last season, when he led the NHL in high-danger saves. A strong performance from Sorokin would give New York a chance even if the Leafs produce more shots.

Bo Horvat

Horvat is New York’s clearest established scoring threat. He led the Islanders with 31 goals in 68 games last season. Toronto will need to track him closely around the net, particularly if the Islanders create power-play opportunities.

Will Mathew Barzal play?

Barzal is an important lineup question for New York. The Islanders placed him on their injured non-roster list while he dealt with a knee issue. He was expected to travel with the team and had not been ruled out of Wednesday’s opener. His availability could change how dangerous the Islanders look in attack.

Who has the better chance to win?

Toronto has a slight edge, mainly because it is playing at home and has several forwards who can decide the game. Matthews provides proven finishing ability, while Nylander, Tavares and McKenna give the Leafs more ways to create offence.

It is a close call. Toronto’s game against Montréal the previous night gives the Islanders a potential energy advantage. New York also has a path to victory if Sorokin starts and plays well, Horvat converts a chance, and Schaefer helps limit Toronto’s time in the offensive zone.

Prediction: Maple Leafs to win a close game. That pick would become less certain if Toronto has a difficult opener on Tuesday or if Barzal is cleared to play for New York.