What are the predictions for the game Brazil-Norway?

EAST RUTHERFORD, New Jersey. The pick of the Round of 16 arrives on Sunday night, and it carries a delicious subplot: Brazil, five-time world champions and clear favorites, must find a way past both Erling Haaland and a piece of history that refuses to die. Norway have faced Brazil four times and never lost, and they arrive at MetLife Stadium believing the hoodoo can hold once more.

The models still lean toward the Seleçao. Pre-match probabilities give Brazil roughly a 52 percent chance of winning in 90 minutes, with the draw around 26 percent and Norway near 23 percent. Bookmakers agree, pricing Brazil around 17/20 and Norway out near 3/1. Nobody, though, is calling this a comfortable night.

Brazil have the pedigree, but not a clean bill of health

Carlo Ancelotti, the first non-Brazilian to coach the national team at a World Cup, guided Brazil through Group C as winners after a draw with Morocco and routine wins over Haiti and Scotland. The Round of 32 was less serene: Brazil needed a stoppage-time Gabriel Martinelli strike to see off Japan 2-1 after Casemiro had leveled. They have scored nine and conceded just two, with Vinicius Junior in dazzling form and Matheus Cunha a sharp foil.

The concern is availability. Lucas Paqueta is ruled out with a thigh injury, Raphinha is a major doubt, and questions hang over the center of defense. Alisson has kept clean sheets, but Brazil have leaked goals in the knockout rounds, and this is a far more dangerous attack than Japan’s.

Norway’s fairy tale runs on Haaland

Norway are back in the World Cup knockout stage for the first time since 1998. Stale Solbakken’s side beat Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2, absorbed a 4-1 lesson from France, then edged Ivory Coast 2-1 in the last 32 thanks to a late Haaland winner.

Haaland has been irresistible, with five goals so far, braces against both Iraq and Senegal, and a scoring record that now reads 60 goals in 53 caps. Martin Odegaard pulls the strings behind him, with Antonio Nusa and Alexander Sorloth adding threat. The flip side is a defense that has looked shaky all tournament: Norway have conceded in every game and both teams have scored in all four of their matches.

The hoodoo, and the duels that decide it

The history is remarkable. Norway have played Brazil four times and never been beaten, most famously the 2-1 group-stage upset at the 1998 World Cup. This is a very different Brazil, but the narrative gives Norway belief, and even Haaland, who has publicly described his side’s chances as very slim, knows one moment could change everything.

Tactically, the tie may turn on how Brazil handle Haaland. Gabriel Magalhaes knows him well from the Premier League, where Haaland has scored freely against both Gabriel and Marquinhos, so Casemiro and Bruno Guimaraes will need to cut the supply before it reaches him. At the other end, Brazil’s wingers Vinicius Junior and company should find joy against Norway’s full-backs, the same channels Ivory Coast exploited to score. A further wrinkle is the forecast: temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit in New Jersey could slow the tempo and shape how open the game becomes.

The prediction

This has the makings of the round’s most entertaining match, with two of the tournament’s most feared attacks and neither defense watertight. The consensus is that Brazil have the greater all-round quality and squad depth and should edge a high-scoring game, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals the most popular angles given how freely both sides have found the net.

The scoreline most in play is a narrow Brazil win, something like 2-1 or 3-2, and extra time is a genuine possibility if Haaland delivers one of his moments. Norway’s realistic route is to keep it tight, feed their striker in dangerous areas, and drag Brazil into a shootout where the historical edge and nothing-to-lose freedom could tell.

Bottom line: Brazil to advance, most likely after a nervy, goal-filled contest that could stretch beyond 90 minutes. Norway are the live underdog of the round, and if any team can make a fifth meeting with Brazil another unbeaten one, it is a side with the best striker in the world in the form of his life.

Kickoff is 4 p.m. ET (10 p.m. CEST) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The winner meets the winner of Mexico vs England in the quarter-finals. This is a knockout tie: level after 90 minutes means extra time, then penalties if needed.