Grab your poutine and settle in, Canada, because Thursday’s World Cup quarter-final in Boston carries a little extra sting for us.
When France and Morocco kick off at Gillette Stadium (4 p.m. EST, July 9), Canadian fans will be watching the very side that ended our tournament dreams. Morocco put co-hosts Canada to the sword in the last 16, claiming a 3-0 win despite only mustering four shots on target. They were overwhelmed by Canada in the first half but weathered the storm, and then Azzedine Ounahi’s brace followed by Soufiane Rahimi’s goal in the second half sealed the game. Ruthless. Efficient. And now the Atlas Lions stand between France and a semifinal berth.
A rematch three years in the making
This one is personal for both teams. The most recent meeting between these two sides came at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, when France won 2-0 in the semifinal in Qatar. The Atlas Lions will be out to avenge that 2022 semi-final defeat. Morocco arrive red-hot, unbeaten in 10 matches since the AFCON final, and they smell an upset.
France, though, look every bit the tournament favourites. Les Bleus are unbeaten in 12 competitive matches and have won their last seven. If they win an eighth in a row, they’ll become only the third nation ever to reach three consecutive World Cup semi-finals.
The Mbappé factor
You already know the name. Kylian Mbappé is in outstanding form, scoring seven goals at this tournament, and he’s now one of only two players in history to score seven or more goals in two separate World Cups. The other is Lionel Messi. A penalty against Paraguay in the round of 16 was all France needed to grind past a stubborn opponent.
Morocco have their own problem to solve: focal-point striker Ismael Saibari is a major doubt with a hamstring injury after coming off early against Canada, which blunts their attack considerably.
So what’s the score going to be?
The bookmakers have made their call, and it isn’t especially close. France are heavy favourites on the moneyline, with Morocco listed as sizeable underdogs and the draw sitting well behind. The betting markets lean toward a lower-scoring game, with the total set right around two and a half goals.
Reading the tea leaves, a 1-0 or 2-0 France win looks like the smart prediction, especially given that thirteen of France’s last 16 wins came by two-plus goal margins while seven of Morocco’s last nine World Cup defeats came by a single goal. Expect France to control the tempo, Morocco to defend deep and dangerous, and Mbappé to eventually find the key.
But if there’s one team built to spoil a favourite’s party, it’s this Moroccan side. Just ask Canada.
Prediction: France 2, Morocco 0 — though don’t be shocked if the Atlas Lions drag it to penalties and break a few more hearts along the way.